PROBABILISTIC RELIABILITY MODELING FOR E & P FACILITIES IN THE TALLGRASS PRAIRIE

Lyda Zambrano*
Greg J. Thoma
University of Arkansas
3202 Bell Engineering Center
Fayetteville, AR 72701
Voice: 479-575-4951
Fax: 479-575-7926
E-mail: lzambra@uark.edu

K. Sublette
Tulsa University
Tulsa, OK

Kathleen E. Duncan
Oklahoma University
Norman, OK

In the area of risk assessment and equipment failure rate estimation, there has been a large amount of work and a number of models developed for many industries. However, there is not a model directly applicable to oil E&P facilities. Reliability theory and common hazard analysis techniques such as failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis and event tree analysis were used to develop a model to estimate the failure probability of the equipment (including pipelines) typically used at production leases in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve. We present the results of Monte-Carlo simulations of the failure probability due to the combination of the most significant failure modes of each lease component. Factors associated with a high risk of accidental release of produced fluids (oil, brine) can be identified. The failure probabilities can be coupled with the estimation of site specific consequences (ecosystem damage, cleanup costs, and fines) to create a risk index that can be used to schedule lease maintenance to reduce accidental fluid releases.